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Insights
Stay informed with expert commentary on proxy contests, thought leadership, and other timely updates.
Case study
4
min read
Egan-Jones Stands Alone for Good Governance
The case for replacing Octagon is weak, while higher XAI fees and board ties raise concerns for XFLT shareholders.
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Market commentary
5
min read
Ending the Sisyphus Cycle (and Follow-on Implications)
Saudi-Iran cooperation and new oil routes could reduce regional tensions, lower energy prices, and reshape investor risk.
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Market commentary
3
min read
Changing Assumptions and Follow-on Results
Drones are reshaping military power, exposing limits in Russia and Iran while potentially deterring China over Taiwan.
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Market commentary
5
min read
A Massive Sea Change; Impact on Sophisticated Investors and Risk Managers
AI is merging digital and physical worlds, rapidly reshaping warfare, industries, jobs, and business risk.
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Case study
4
min read
Egan-Jones Stands Alone for Good Governance
The case for replacing Octagon is weak, while higher XAI fees and board ties raise concerns for XFLT shareholders.
Read post
Market commentary
8
min read
Viva la Vida; The Limits of Power
U.S. power is limited in Iran and Ukraine, China benefits, and investors must adapt as global power shifts.
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Market commentary
5
min read
Of Dice and Men
Statistics protect structured finance investors when used upfront, honestly, and with macro/micro risk context.
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Market commentary
9
min read
The Engels' Pause; AI, the K-Shaped Economy, and the Return of the Left
AI-driven inequality could fuel leftward policy shifts, raising tax, labor, tech-regulation, and credit risks.
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Market commentary
10
min read
Play It Again; China's Fast-Follower Playbook Reaches AI
China’s cheap open AI models and buildout capacity may squeeze Western AI margins and shift value to hardware and power.
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Market commentary
5
min read
Identifying Disasters Early; Emerging Technology Juggernauts
A key component for sophisticated investors and risk managers is identifying and adjusting for major market moves.
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Market commentary
7
min read
A Great War; Identifying Winners & Losers
AI is reshaping tech, with winners likely in chips, data centers, models, hardware, and user access.
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Market commentary
7
min read
The Big Deal; Avoiding the Thucydides Trap
Trump’s China trip with top CEOs signals major US–China trade adjustments, potential “Plaza Accord II,” creating sector winners and losers.
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Market commentary
5
min read
Checking One’s Assumptions
Off-balance sheet financings drove major corporate collapses and persist today; investors must assess hidden risks and responses.
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Market commentary
8
min read
Rating Structured Securities – Secular Credit Risk Decay
Structured finance ratings should change over time as deal risk declines or becomes certain.
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Market commentary
3
min read
A More Complete Way of Looking at Credit
Credit ratings should assess fragility, not just current quality, to spot risks before small shocks trigger collapse.
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Market commentary
3
min read
A Dangerous Silence
Iran’s Hormuz strategy may echo Japan’s 1940s escalation, posing market risks despite hopes sanctions force a negotiated settlement.
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Market commentary
5
min read
Tit for Tat; The Making of a Faustian Bargain
World has rapidly shifted, altering investment and credit conditions; we assess recent changes and implications for institutional investors.
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Case study
7
min read
People's Financial Corporation: A Case for Continuity
PFBX performance is stable and peer-aligned despite recent deposit pressure; dissident lacks strategy; vote FOR management nominees.
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Market commentary
8
min read
You Can’t Always Get What You Want; The Emerging World Order
Middle East conflict may choke energy flows, lift inflation, and hit Europe/Asia hardest, leaving markets in a tense stalemate.
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