Insights

Stay informed with expert commentary on proxy contests, thought leadership, and other timely updates.

Ending the Sisyphus Cycle (and Follow-on Implications)

Saudi-Iran cooperation and new oil routes could reduce regional tensions, lower energy prices, and reshape investor risk.
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Changing Assumptions and Follow-on Results

Drones are reshaping military power, exposing limits in Russia and Iran while potentially deterring China over Taiwan.
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A Massive Sea Change; Impact on Sophisticated Investors and Risk Managers

AI is merging digital and physical worlds, rapidly reshaping warfare, industries, jobs, and business risk.
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Case study
4
 min read

Egan-Jones Stands Alone for Good Governance

The case for replacing Octagon is weak, while higher XAI fees and board ties raise concerns for XFLT shareholders.
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Viva la Vida; The Limits of Power

U.S. power is limited in Iran and Ukraine, China benefits, and investors must adapt as global power shifts.
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Of Dice and Men

Statistics protect structured finance investors when used upfront, honestly, and with macro/micro risk context.
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The Engels' Pause; AI, the K-Shaped Economy, and the Return of the Left

AI-driven inequality could fuel leftward policy shifts, raising tax, labor, tech-regulation, and credit risks.
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Market commentary
10
 min read

Play It Again; China's Fast-Follower Playbook Reaches AI

China’s cheap open AI models and buildout capacity may squeeze Western AI margins and shift value to hardware and power.
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Identifying Disasters Early; Emerging Technology Juggernauts

A key component for sophisticated investors and risk managers is identifying and adjusting for major market moves.
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A Great War; Identifying Winners & Losers

AI is reshaping tech, with winners likely in chips, data centers, models, hardware, and user access.
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The Big Deal; Avoiding the Thucydides Trap

Trump’s China trip with top CEOs signals major US–China trade adjustments, potential “Plaza Accord II,” creating sector winners and losers.
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Checking One’s Assumptions

Off-balance sheet financings drove major corporate collapses and persist today; investors must assess hidden risks and responses.
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Rating Structured Securities – Secular Credit Risk Decay

Structured finance ratings should change over time as deal risk declines or becomes certain.
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A More Complete Way of Looking at Credit

Credit ratings should assess fragility, not just current quality, to spot risks before small shocks trigger collapse.
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A Dangerous Silence

Iran’s Hormuz strategy may echo Japan’s 1940s escalation, posing market risks despite hopes sanctions force a negotiated settlement.
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Tit for Tat; The Making of a Faustian Bargain

World has rapidly shifted, altering investment and credit conditions; we assess recent changes and implications for institutional investors.
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Case study
7
 min read

People's Financial Corporation: A Case for Continuity

PFBX performance is stable and peer-aligned despite recent deposit pressure; dissident lacks strategy; vote FOR management nominees.
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You Can’t Always Get What You Want; The Emerging World Order

Middle East conflict may choke energy flows, lift inflation, and hit Europe/Asia hardest, leaving markets in a tense stalemate.
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