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Insights
Stay informed with expert commentary on proxy contests, thought leadership, and other timely updates.
Market commentary
5
min read
Ending the Sisyphus Cycle (and Follow-on Implications)
Saudi-Iran cooperation and new oil routes could reduce regional tensions, lower energy prices, and reshape investor risk.
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Market commentary
3
min read
Doing All the Right Things and Being Disastrously Wrong
Even stellar issuers can deliver disastrous bond returns when duration, rates, pricing, and sector risks are overlooked.
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Market commentary
4
min read
Preparing for the Coming Tsunami; Finding Safe Harbors
Rising debt and shifting industrial power may force painful adjustments, increasing the need for resilient assets and safe harbors.
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Market commentary
10
min read
Tricolor Early Indicators
Tricolor’s collapse shows how rising delinquencies, higher funding costs, and falling collateral values can signal credit risk.
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Market commentary
10
min read
MAD World; Private Assets and State-Level Risk
Cheap, long-range drones expose commercial assets, insurers, lenders and investors to rising strategic risk.
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Market commentary
10
min read
The financialization of the economy; an unconsidered vulnerability of the West
Financial power follows economic power; China’s rise could challenge U.S. market dominance and trigger major repricing.
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Market commentary
7
min read
Are We There Yet? The End of the Iran War
U.S. goals in Iran remain unmet as Hormuz disruption, inflation, depleted reserves and regional attacks raise global economic risks.
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Market commentary
7
min read
Chokepoint Chokehold; Risk to Middle East Sovereigns
Middle East sovereigns face concentrated risks in oil routes, water, food, demographics, stability, and escalation.
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Market commentary
9
min read
False Basic Assumptions; Ripples from AI
AI is challenging assumptions about inflation, expertise, first-mover advantage, contract law, and credit risk.
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Market commentary
5
min read
Ending the Sisyphus Cycle (and Follow-on Implications)
Saudi-Iran cooperation and new oil routes could reduce regional tensions, lower energy prices, and reshape investor risk.
Read post
Market commentary
3
min read
Changing Assumptions and Follow-on Results
Drones are reshaping military power, exposing limits in Russia and Iran while potentially deterring China over Taiwan.
Read post
Market commentary
5
min read
A Massive Sea Change; Impact on Sophisticated Investors and Risk Managers
AI is merging digital and physical worlds, rapidly reshaping warfare, industries, jobs, and business risk.
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Case study
4
min read
Egan-Jones Stands Alone for Good Governance
The case for replacing Octagon is weak, while higher XAI fees and board ties raise concerns for XFLT shareholders.
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Market commentary
8
min read
Viva la Vida; The Limits of Power
U.S. power is limited in Iran and Ukraine, China benefits, and investors must adapt as global power shifts.
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Market commentary
5
min read
Of Dice and Men
Statistics protect structured finance investors when used upfront, honestly, and with macro/micro risk context.
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Market commentary
9
min read
The Engels' Pause; AI, the K-Shaped Economy, and the Return of the Left
AI-driven inequality could fuel leftward policy shifts, raising tax, labor, tech-regulation, and credit risks.
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Market commentary
10
min read
Play It Again; China's Fast-Follower Playbook Reaches AI
China’s cheap open AI models and buildout capacity may squeeze Western AI margins and shift value to hardware and power.
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Market commentary
5
min read
Identifying Disasters Early; Emerging Technology Juggernauts
A key component for sophisticated investors and risk managers is identifying and adjusting for major market moves.
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Market commentary
7
min read
A Great War; Identifying Winners & Losers
AI is reshaping tech, with winners likely in chips, data centers, models, hardware, and user access.
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