No Navy, No Air Force, No Problem

Overview

Our fundamental premise is that a country needs neither manned sea vessels nor manned planes to be an effective military force. Using the “faster, better, cheaper” model, missiles and drones now trump most traditional weapon delivery systems. The implications are widespread and are massively relevant for sophisticated institutional investors and risk managers.  

Figure I: Fattah-2 Missile

Recent Developments

These recent developments make missiles and drones far more effective:

1. Directable Hypersonic Missiles - The Fattah-2 missile (pictured above) is hypersonic and can change course, making it nearly impossible to hit with current missile defense systems, which use missiles that are designed to counter incoming missiles that fly a relatively stable course at lower speeds. Furthermore, because of its high kinetic energy, the hypersonic missile has far greater destructive power.
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2. Iridium Tracking - Like Starlink, Iridium enables drones to be guided with relative ease to targets, mapping of which has apparently been provided to Iran by Russia and China.
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3. Physical Limitations of Missile Defense Systems - For a missile defense system to be effective, the defensive missiles need to be able to travel faster than the munitions they are tracking. Given the changing courses of the directable hypersonic missiles, it appears that countering such missiles is extremely difficult.
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4. Masking and Cost Disparity - Given the low cost of drones and the ability to disguise drones, it will be increasingly difficult to effectively protect assets from attacks.
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5. Mutual Bankruptcy - At what point does this massive expenditure on military hardware effectively bankrupt the combatants?

Possible Counter Measures

Ultimately counter measures will be adopted, but it appears the advantage is with the attackers. Just as in World War II carrier battles, the advantage was with the side which attacked first, perhaps the advantage here is again with not only the side which attacks first, but also with the side which can hide its assets. On this score, it is clear that Iran has the advantage with a diverse and hidden drone/missile system and the apparent ability to build additional drones at a fairly rapid pace.

Ineffective Defenses

It is becoming increasingly clear that missile defenses are difficult and perhaps can never be sufficiently effective.  

Implications

If our premises are accurate, the implications are massive. Israel and the U.S. have succeeded in antagonizing and further radicalizing a state they have no possibility of defeating. Additionally, if one assumes Iran has nuclear material, which it certainly does, there are some elements which will push hard to use that material. Lastly, one can assume Iran will exact a heavy price for the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, the message extends beyond Iran as China, Russia, and possibly North Korea are aiming to learn from this rapidly evolving episode. We have yet to find out how an aircraft carrier effectively defends itself from a swarm attack of drones and directable hypersonic missiles.

Conclusion

We hope that our analysis is wrong. However, if we are correct, U.S. leadership appears to have tragically flawed views of its capabilities and untangling the mess in the Middle East will take time and will be expensive.

Additional Information

1. Professor Theodore Postol, MIT
2. Col. Larry Wilkerson & Larry C. Johnson